Officials and Experts Warn Hong Kong Must Act Fast to Keep Families From Leaving

Hong Kong's population stood at roughly 7.3 million as of mid-2026, according to figures released last month by the Census and Statistics Department — still below the 2019 peak, and a number that senior officials have stopped pretending isn't a problem. At a District Council forum in Kwun Tong on Thursday, community stakeholders put the question directly to government-aligned representatives: when does the city stop managing decline and start reversing it?

The stakes are immediate. The Greater Bay Area integration agenda, which Beijing accelerated after the 2020 National Security Law, was meant to generate economic momentum that would anchor residents and attract talent. Two years after Article 23 passed, that momentum is visible in cross-border fintech corridors and the expansion of the Hong Kong–Shenzhen Innovation and Technology Park at Lok Ma Chau, but community organisations say it has not translated into the kind of neighbourhood confidence that makes families stay.

What the Experts Are Actually Saying

Urban planners and social workers are not talking in abstractions. Dr. Karen Lam, a researcher at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University's Department of Applied Social Sciences, told a public seminar at Jockey Club Creative Arts Centre in Shek Kip Mei on Wednesday that the city's emigration pattern has shifted — it is no longer primarily young professionals leaving for the UK's BN(O) scheme or Canadian permanent residency programs, but middle-aged parents following children who left in 2021 and 2022. That second wave is harder to reverse because it involves the sale of flats, not just a job change. Residential transaction volumes in districts like Tuen Mun and Yuen Long remain 18 percent below their five-year average, per data from Midland Realty published last week.

The government's response, as articulated by officials from the Home and Youth Affairs Bureau at a July 2 briefing, centres on two programs: the Top Talent Pass Scheme, which has issued more than 70,000 visas since its 2022 launch, and the newly expanded Quality Migrant Admission Scheme, which lowered its points threshold in March. Critics at the Kwun Tong forum argued those programs fill certain professional slots without rebuilding the social fabric in older districts. A community worker from the Caritas Hong Kong office in Sham Shui Po put the point plainly to attendees: new arrivals from the mainland and Southeast Asia are settling primarily in Yau Tsim Mong and the northern New Territories, not in the districts that lost the most established residents.

Neighbourhood Pressures, Block by Block

The ground-level picture is specific. On Ki Lung Street in Sham Shui Po, three family-run hardware shops closed in the first half of 2026, replaced by two bubble tea franchises and a vacant unit. Councillors in the district say footfall data from the Leisure and Cultural Services Department shows weekend attendance at Sham Shui Po Sports Centre down roughly 12 percent compared to the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, property agents in Sai Kung report that weekend hikers and staycation bookings at local guesthouses have held steady, suggesting the city's retained middle class is concentrating its spending in recreational corridors rather than urban commercial streets.

Financial sector voices are watching Singapore closely. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority reported in May that total assets under management in the city reached HK$34.9 trillion in 2025 — a record — but headhunters at firms operating out of Two International Finance Centre say competition for senior private banking talent with Singapore remains fierce, particularly as Singaporean firms offer lower personal income tax rates and what several recruiters describe privately as a cleaner regulatory pitch to international clients.

The District Council in Kwun Tong voted on Thursday to petition the Chief Executive's office for a dedicated community retention task force, with a deadline for a formal government response by September 30. Residents in affected neighbourhoods should watch the next Policy Address, expected in October, for concrete district-level commitments — specifically whether the Housing Bureau will extend its transitional housing subsidies, currently capped at HK$1,500 per month per household, into 2027 and whether the Lok Ma Chau innovation corridor will include community amenity funding alongside its industrial zoning approvals.